Occupying forces might be stretched thin and vulnerable to stay-behind insurgents. If Russia were to invade Ukraine, it would likely employ massive cyber and electronic warfare tools and long-range PGMs. The aim would be to create “shock and awe,” causing Ukraine's defenses or will to fight to collapse. https://euronewstop.co.uk/when-will-russia-and-ukraine-talk.html was wishful Soviet thinking early in its Afghanistan war and America's calculus early in the Iraq war.
Allies should thus consider, as a matter of urgency, persuasive signalling to Russia about possible conventional military responses (e.g. a disabling of Russian military targets in the Black Sea) that would come as a result of such acts. Only the certainty of retaliation can dissuade the Kremlin from seriously contemplating such an option. Special funding assistance will be required for long-term training and the modernisation of Ukrainian forces, de facto bringing them to NATO standards.
What’s the Kremlin’s post-invasion game plan?
First, Putin has indicated that he questions Ukraine’s right to statehood, calling modern Ukraine an artificial construct of the Soviet Union. Second, he thinks that a western-leaning Ukraine is dangerous for Russia. He has called the possibility of Nato membership for Ukraine a “red line” for the Kremlin. Third, he wants to show that popular revolutions such as the one that took place in Kyiv in 2014 do not succeed in the long run. Unprecedented, supposedly game-changing US and EU sanctions will follow an invasion.
- Corruption, a disease at the heart of the Russian state, displayed itself on a grand scale in the conduct of the military operation.
- With just three UK-provided Storm Shadow cruise missiles, they have forced the commander of the Black Sea Fleet to withdraw a third of his fleet from Sevastopol.
- Crucially, Allies have finally attributed responsibility where it lies, calling Russia “the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security” in their new Strategic Concept.
- Numerous cases of conscription offices being set on fire in Russia suggest strongly that many young people are opposed to being sent to the frontlines in Ukraine.
Russia's long-time leader was also desperate to prevent Ukraine from entering Nato's orbit, but his attempt to blame the Western defensive alliance for the war is false. At home, Russia's economy on the surface appears to have weathered a series of Western sanctions for now, although its budget deficit has soared and oil and gas revenue has fallen dramatically. BBC Russian has identified more than 15,000 Russian soldiers killed in the first year of war and suggests the most conservative estimate would be at least double that, with more than 100,000 others wounded or missing.
Analysis: what happens if Russia invades?
Russia could also justify a further invasion of Ukraine by recognising the territorial claims of the two separatist governments. They include the large city of Mariupol, which is on the other side of the frontlines. If Russia recognises their expanded borders, it may order its troops to begin an offensive against the Ukrainian army. Russia’s military is likely to make a formal entrance into the territories soon.
- In a wide-ranging interview, the Ukrainian commander also said his navy would gladly take charge of two British warships the Royal Navy may reportedly have to retire early because of a shortage of sailors.
- Russia's defence ministry has denied attacking Ukrainian cities - saying it was targeting military infrastructure, air defence and air forces with "high-precision weapons".
- But it is a formal, public and written commitment by the UK to support Ukraine.
- Western intelligence estimates that Russia already has up to 100,000 troops positioned near to the border with Ukraine, along with tanks and artillery.
And Russian troops have been advancing and attacking - against the north-eastern city of Chernihiv and the southern city of Maripul, among many others. Nato countries and allies are watching Russia's every move, warning that their defensive military alliance will do everything to defend "every inch" of their territory. The United States and its allies may further reinforce NATO's eastern flank with major ground and air units. They might increase stocks of PGMs, such as the new medium-range ballistic Precision Strike Missile. Given Russia's potential mass use of long-range PGMs, NATO may have to improve its aerospace defenses.
"The two sides are very ill-matched, Russia has a massive superiority in firepower and the Ukrainians are weak comparatively," he said. Condemnation from the Foreign Secretary Liz Truss was swift, saying the UK stands with Ukraine and will work with our international partners to respond to this "terrible act of aggression". They say NATO's principles of freedom and democracy are under threat and NATO has acted in non-member countries before, like Libya and Kosovo. Prime Minister Boris Johnson repeated that over the weekend, saying Ukraine is not a part of NATO and therefore not entitled to NATO's one for all, all for one protection. He fears a people power revolution like Ukraine's and the emergence of a more prosperous democracy and how that might encourage Russians to want the same.
- It is backed by two UN resolutions, passed days after the invasion and hours before the first anniversary of the war.
- First, Putin has indicated that he questions Ukraine’s right to statehood, calling modern Ukraine an artificial construct of the Soviet Union.
- In 2018, he showed a boastful video simulating a nuclear-armed missile attacking Florida.
Ukraine could benefit from better command and control, electronic warfare, and reconnaissance capabilities. All this could help it degrade a blitz, although supply or absorptive constraints might be hindrances. The US estimates artillery, missile and bomb strikes and ground clashes could kill 50,000 civilians, a figure that may prove conservative if fighting is prolonged. Hundreds of thousands may flee, presenting Europe with a huge humanitarian and refugee emergency. Gross human rights violations and chemical weapons atrocities, as in Syria, cannot be ruled out. According to reports, Russian missiles on Kyiv and Kharkiv killed at least 18 people and injured over one hundred.
- The UK Government has no active system in place to provide the public with early warning of a nuclear attack, i revealed this week.
- Checkpoints and pillboxes would be built at motorway junctions and city entrances.
- A long-held taboo that made an actual application of nuclear force unthinkable has been verbally discarded.
- According to reports, Russian missiles on Kyiv and Kharkiv killed at least 18 people and injured over one hundred.
- Anyone exposed within a 6.8-mile radius of the impact would almost certainly suffer third-degree burns, while hundreds of thousands would be likely to die due to radiation fallout.
At its Summit in Madrid in June 2022, NATO recognised this and offered an upgraded package of support. Ukrainians (military and civilians alike) are being killed simply because they are Ukrainians. Evident atrocities fitting the criteria of war crimes are being perpetrated and accompanied by genocidal talk on Russian state TV. Hundreds of thousands of people, including children, have been forcefully deported to Russia. Over six million (at the time of writing) have had to flee Ukraine; many more have been internally displaced.
The action has made it harder for Russia to enforce a naval blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea ports, imposed to reduce Kyiv's ability to export grain. The sinking of the Moskva "achieved a military goal, but also a political one", said Vice Admiral Neizhpapa, proudly holding the unusual piece of artwork, which is about the size of a very large plate. Madame Chair, last but not least I also wanted to highlight today the UK’s continued concern for our three OSCE colleagues of the Special Monitoring Mission detained by Russia. The UK’s nuclear advice for citizens is called the Protect and Survive booklet. It was first produced at the height of the Cold War in 1974 and last updated in 1980.