Is Russia invading Ukraine and what will happen next? Ukraine

· 6 min read
Is Russia invading Ukraine and what will happen next? Ukraine

A full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine would create one of the largest refugee crises in the world, with as many as five million people displaced, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations said on Wednesday. The Russian offensive was preceded by artillery fire and there were injuries to border guards, the DPSU said. Russian military convoys have crossed from Belarus into Ukraine's northern Chernihiv region, and from Russia into the Sumy region, which is also in the north, Ukraine's border guard service (DPSU) said. And he added that any intervention from outside powers to resist the Russian attack would be met with an "instant" and devastating response. He urged Ukrainian soldiers in the combat zone to lay down their weapons and go home, but said clashes were inevitable and "only a question of time".

  • It would be wrong to say that the front lines in Ukraine are stalemated, but both sides are capable of fighting each other to a standstill as they each try to take strategic initiatives.
  • The goal of massively increasing the availability of troops at high readiness is essential for effective deterrence.
  • "Oftentimes, cyber-operations go hand in hand with influence," she said.
  • Putin has turned Russia into an international pariah and the country will not recover its reputation for a long time.
  • However, sources have confirmed that no agreements were made and negotiations are set to continue at a later date.

Evident atrocities fitting the criteria of war crimes are being perpetrated and accompanied by genocidal talk on Russian state TV. Hundreds of thousands of people, including children, have been forcefully deported to Russia. Over six million (at the time of writing) have had to flee Ukraine; many more have been internally displaced.

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The historic decision by both Finland and Sweden to apply for NATO membership points to the gravity of this threat. Small countries, such as Moldova and Georgia, but also Moscow’s formal allies such as Kazakhstan, may fear becoming Putin’s next target. The Kremlin has not made any attempt to assuage these fears, but has instead amplified them via direct menaces, propaganda and intimidation levers.

what would happen if russia invades ukraine

The aim would be to create “shock and awe,” causing Ukraine's defenses or will to fight to collapse. This was wishful Soviet thinking early in its Afghanistan war and America's calculus early in the Iraq war. "The most likely military scenario in my view is going to be a series of rolling operations that they can stop at any point along the way based on how the West reacts," said Ben Hodges, a retired lieutenant general who was commander of U.S. " https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-does-ukraine-war-mean-for-uk.html  is Ukraine's weakest spot," said Taras Chmut, a Ukrainian military expert in Kyiv.

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There would also be concerns about looting, especially if food shortages started to bite. The decision of India’s Tata Steel this month to shut its two blast furnaces at Port Talbot, for example, means that Britain may soon be unable to make steel from scratch. Without steel, there are no tanks, no warships and no artillery shells. Key bridges could be dynamited, airport runways blocked, and beaches sown with landmines. The temporary “Nightingale” hospitals built to deal with Covid would be reopened – and the makeshift mortuaries nearby.

Russia has begun a large-scale military attack on Ukraine, its southern neighbour, on the orders of Russian President Vladimir Putin. First there came the manufacturing of a critical emergency in two areas of eastern Ukraine that have been under the control of Russia-backed separatists since 2014. But Russia's military doctrine prescribes achieving surprise and shock; maximum use of all lethal force available; rapid tempo of operations; and quick achievement of objectives. US President Joe Biden has ruled out sending troops even to shepherd American citizens out of Ukraine because he said if Russians and Americans end up fighting that would be World War III. Prime Minister Boris Johnson repeated that over the weekend, saying Ukraine is not a part of NATO and therefore not entitled to NATO's one for all, all for one protection.

How Could the United States React to Russia's Latest Posturing on Ukraine?

Meanwhile, other Western defence sources have expressed concern about an increase in signals intelligence and "chatter" being monitored which could signal Russia's preparedness to invade. The intelligence official described the build-up as a "slow drip" and a "slow ratcheting up of pressure". The admiral described Russia's military build-up on its border with Ukraine as "deeply worrying".

However, don’t expect to see Jeremy Corbyn being carted off straight away. In extremis, a wartime government could inter anyone deemed a threat to public order or the  war effort. As fighting intensifies, cross-Channel shipping is attacked by Russian submarines, and long-range conventional missiles strike Dover and Southampton. The comments, first reported by the Daily Telegraph, are being read as a warning that British men and women should be ready for a call-up to the armed forces if NATO goes to war with Vladimir Putin. Russia’s key demand is that Ukraine and other countries be blocked from joining Nato – a concession the alliance has firmly ruled out.

  • But Mr Putin might take the risk if he felt it was the only way of saving his leadership.
  • Your parents are likely to pay even more for gas and electricity because of this crisis.
  • And in each case, the threat of sanctions failed to dissuade Putin.
  • While Russia's Vladimir Putin insisted for months that there were no plans to invade Ukraine, it's the question everyone is asking as the president declared a "special military operation" in the Donbas region of the country.
  • President Volodomyr Zelensky has admitted his country's spring offensive has not been the success he hoped.

A serviceman with Ukraine's military forces walks along a trench on the front line with Russia-backed separatists, not far from Novoluhanske, in Ukraine's Donetsk region, on Feb. 16. As a result, U.S. officials have warned various sectors, including the semiconductor and aerospace industries, to brace for supply chain disruptions. Russia is a major exporter of rare-earth minerals and heavy metals — such as titanium used in airplanes. Russia supplies about a third of the world's palladium, a rare metal used in catalytic converters, and its price has soared in recent weeks over fears of a conflict. Nearly 40% of the natural gas used by the European Union comes from Russia.

  • He urged Ukrainian soldiers in the combat zone to lay down their weapons and go home, but said clashes were inevitable and "only a question of time".
  • But concrete pledges of national contributions, like those announced by US President Biden on 29 June, must follow quickly from all Allies.
  • The decision marks the end of the Minsk peace deal, a troubled road map out of the conflict that would have left the territories in Ukraine.

The recognition of the territories and occupation by Russian forces is also an act of aggression but it is not the nightmare scenario. Analysts say Russia could opt for a more limited, less risky offensive to grab extra territory in eastern Ukraine and the Donbas, while asserting the independence of pro-Moscow breakaway republics there, as in Georgia in 2008. It may also try to seize the major ports of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov and Odessa on the Black Sea, and create a “land bridge” to Crimea. Russian cyberattacks have targeted Ukraine relentlessly in recent years, including attacks on the capital city of Kyiv's power grid in 2015 and 2016.

  • President Putin, 70, has sought to distance himself from military failures, but his authority, at least outside Russia, has been shredded and he makes few trips beyond its borders.
  • As current levels are eminently insufficient, procurement practices and defence industry production capacity must be adapted, and stocks augmented quickly.
  • “It is high time to establish a cease-fire and return to the path of dialogue and negotiations to save the people in Ukraine and beyond from the scourge of war,” he said.
  • "And I think Russia's well aware of many of the things that we would do if they put us in a position where we have to do them."
  • And he added that any intervention from outside powers to resist the Russian attack would be met with an "instant" and devastating response.
  • While Covid was a useful exercise in Armageddon planning, 21st-century Britain is arguably less ready for actual warfare than it was even 30 years ago.

But, as the aggression continues, with Russia concentrating its efforts on gaining control of eastern and southern Ukraine via a war of attrition,  Western unity is being tested. Divergent interpretations over sanctions that affect the transport of prohibited goods to Kaliningrad illustrate this problem. There is still a vast gap in military power between the two nations, however.