If Ukraine's circumstances became more dire, the United States or NATO allies might consider intervening with their own forces. If Russia were to invade Ukraine, it would likely employ massive cyber and electronic warfare tools and long-range PGMs. The aim would be to create “shock and awe,” causing Ukraine's defenses or will to fight to collapse. This was wishful Soviet thinking early in its Afghanistan war and America's calculus early in the Iraq war. Warnings of an expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine have a “High Noon” feel. A renewed crisis could spur the United States and its NATO allies to go beyond, perhaps well beyond, their responses to Russia's 2014 assault.
Russia is a nuclear power and he has indicated he would be prepared, if necessary, to use nuclear weapons to protect Russia and cling on to occupied Ukrainian land. "We will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff," he warned. Russia has captured the town of Soledar this year and has hopes of seizing the eastern city of Bakhmut on the road to key cities to the west, and of recapturing territory it lost last autumn. A year into the war, he talks of Russia fighting to defend its "historical frontiers" and "rebuilding peaceful life in Donbas and Novorossiya", spelling out that Ukraine's southern territories are part of his project, just as much as the east. His declared goal on 24 February 2022 was to "demilitarise and denazify" Ukraine and not occupy it by force, days after backing independence for eastern Ukrainian territories occupied by Russian proxy forces since 2014.
The problem with peace
Russia is a major exporter of oil and natural gas, especially to Europe. As a result, officials have reportedly shied away from severe sanctions on Russian energy exports. The invasion has been a disaster for President Vladimir Putin and in order to justify it at home he at least has to take control of Ukraine's Donbas region, after which he can falsely claim that the army saved Russian citizens persecuted by Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers his annual state of the nation address in central Moscow on Feb. 21. Putin hasn't pulled back on using "denazification" as his stated goal for the offensive in Ukraine. Ukraine expert Terrell Jermaine Starr recently told me, "every step that Ukrainians took towards Europe came as a direct result of Russian aggression."
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Allies should thus consider, as a matter of urgency, persuasive signalling to Russia about possible conventional military responses (e.g. a disabling of Russian military targets in the Black Sea) that would come as a result of such acts. Only the certainty of retaliation can dissuade the Kremlin from seriously contemplating such an option. More structurally, it has broken the entire security architecture built patiently on the continent over many decades, including international commitments agreed in the last 30 years. As the top UK general recently observed, it is dangerous to assume that the war on Ukraine is a limited conflict. This could be “our 1937 moment“, and everything possible must be done in order to stop territorial expansion by force, thereby averting a war similar to the one that ravaged Europe 80 years ago. "The Ukrainian armed forces could give Russia a very, very hard time," Stelzenmüller told CBC News.
- "They have been warning everyone about Russia's very specific tactics about the possibility of attacks on critical infrastructure," Katerina Sedova, a researcher at Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology, told NPR.
- To bolster his depleted forces President Putin announced Russia's first mobilisation since World War Two, although it was partial and limited to some 300,000 reservists.
- There are many questions over who could lead a loyalist regime in Ukraine, one that could resemble that of Belarus' Alexander Lukashenko.
- The Russian air force - which has played a low-key role so far - launches devastating airstrikes.
- British ministers predict a long-running “quagmire”, with Russia suffering significant casualties.
Most warn that Ukrainians would continue to fight against any puppet regime, with the conflict descending into an insurgency with those Ukrainians left in the country attempting to topple any such regime by any means available. Resistance to Russian forces is likely to get tougher as the war progresses and Russia pulls out the stops to seize more territory. Europe’s most divisive energy project, Nord Stream 2 bypasses the traditional gas transit nation of Ukraine by running along the bed of the Baltic Sea. It has faced resistance within the European Union, and from the United States as well as Ukraine, on the grounds that it increases Europe’s energy dependence on Russia, denies Ukraine transit fees and makes it more vulnerable to Russian invasion. Western countries have condemned the threat and are likely to impose sanctions on Moscow this week.
This militarization could cause a dramatic increase in defense spending by both the United States and NATO over the next decade. Blinken has warned Russia repeatedly there will be "massive consequences" if it does attack Ukraine, without going into much detail. "What you have, since 2014, is you have a country that's continued to develop and coalesce around a national identity," he said of Ukraine. "You have a country that's achieving fairly significant levels of growth." "Alternatively, as I said, if [Putin] chooses renewed aggression against Ukraine, that's going to have consequences too." Blinken said there was still time for the countries to reach an agreement.
Russia’s unprovoked, unjustified and barbaric invasion of Ukraine is not only a manifestation of a huge security danger that has shattered peace in Europe. It is a priority for CBC to create products that are accessible to all in Canada including people with visual, hearing, motor and cognitive challenges. Canada has about 200 soldiers stationed in Ukraine to assist the local military. It's unlikely they would be thrown into battle during a Russian invasion. Further talks are planned between Russian and Western officials but their discussions to date have failed to reduce tensions. The outcome of an invasion would depend on the size of Russia's invading force and its tactics.
If the Kremlin rapidly moved armored units to the west of the front line, it could cut off and trap much of Ukraine's ground troops without having to occupy major cities, experts said. US forces will not get directly involved now, but military assistance will be swiftly provided by some Nato states, including lethal aid, intelligence-sharing and weapons such as man-portable missiles (as in Afghanistan). If fighting is prolonged and https://euronewstop.co.uk/why-ukraine-is-important.html mount, pressure on the west to intervene will grow rapidly. And even once Russian forces have achieved some presence in Ukraine's cities, perhaps they struggle to maintain control. Maybe Russia cannot provide enough troops to cover such a vast country.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week that the military had asked for up to 500,000 additional conscripts but said he needed to hear "more arguments" to support the sensitive and costly proposal.
- The majority of European countries turned to the tried and tested protective security umbrella of NATO, backed by American military capabilities.
- Once Putin rolled his tanks in, pro-Russian sentiment largely vanished.
- The myth of the invincible Russian military machine has evaporated in the space of a few weeks.
- With or without a nuclear threat dimension, Russia’s neighbours already have valid reasons to fear the Russian predator.