In sum, the United States, its NATO allies, and Ukraine could impose immediate and painful costs on any Russian invaders. And for many years thereafter, Russia could face reinforced NATO military power. If Ukraine's circumstances became more dire, the United States or NATO allies might consider intervening with their own forces.
What was meant to be a quick operation is now a protracted war that Western leaders are determined Ukraine should win. To bolster his depleted forces President Putin announced Russia's first mobilisation since World War Two, although it was partial and limited to some 300,000 reservists. Forced into further retreats from Kharkiv in the north-east and Kherson in the south, that aim remains unchanged, but it has shown little success in achieving it. For years, the Russian president has denied Ukraine its own statehood, writing in a lengthy 2021 essay that "Russians and Ukrainians were one people" dating back to the late 9th Century. He vowed to protect people from eight years of Ukrainian bullying and genocide - a Russian propaganda claim with no foundation in reality. He spoke of preventing Nato from gaining a foothold in Ukraine, then added another objective of ensuring Ukraine's neutral status.
How will the war end?
NATO officials, who represent 30 nations in Europe and North America, have flatly rejected Putin's demands. Russia has said it will take what it calls "military-technical" measures to protect its security. https://euronewstop.co.uk/how-many-russian-tanks-have-been-destroyed-in-ukraine.html against Ukraine, once a member of the Soviet Union, is sure to increase fears over the security of other former Soviet countries in Eastern Europe.
- February 24, 2022, is likely to engrave itself on the history template of the contemporary world.
- More than 14,000 people have died in the fighting that has occurred since 2014.
- But that imagined a blitzkrieg-style ground campaign that could take big cities like Kyiv and Kharkiv.
- Ukrainians (military and civilians alike) are being killed simply because they are Ukrainians.
- Washington has proclaimed an “ironclad commitment” to Ukraine's security.
- Earlier this month, the U.S. committed to sending additional mid-range rocket-launching systems known as HIMARS.
He has urged the United Nations to "do everything possible" to stop the aggression going any further. Ukraine has had several disadvantages from the start, including being unable to match the heavy weaponry of Russian forces. Although foreign governments are increasingly sending Ukraine more advanced weapons, it takes time to train Ukrainian troops who have relied on Soviet-era calibers, Cancian says. Earlier this month, the U.S. committed to sending additional mid-range rocket-launching systems known as HIMARS. Recent reports suggest HIMARS may be turning the war back in Ukraine’s favor.
Ukraine is fighting back
Nato member states have increasingly sent Ukraine air defence systems to protect its cities, as well as missile systems, artillery and drones that helped turn the tide against Russia's invasion. A year into the war, he talks of Russia fighting to defend its "historical frontiers" and "rebuilding peaceful life in Donbas and Novorossiya", spelling out that Ukraine's southern territories are part of his project, just as much as the east. Even now, Russia's leader describes the biggest European invasion since the end of World War Two as a "special military operation".
- Over six million (at the time of writing) have had to flee Ukraine; many more have been internally displaced.
- Ukraine’s ability to contain Russian aggression will shape the security environment for years to come.
- That deal also contained a ceasefire agreement, which is now also void.
- Russia’s main demand that Ukraine never be part of NATO and the organisation won’t expand further into Eastern Europe has been rejected.
Crowdfunding military equipment for Ukraine – already successful in Lithuania – shows that the general international public is sympathetic and wants to play its part in this process. To help Kyiv to counterbalance Russia’s size advantages and scorched earth tactics, Allies should consider more military exercises to show NATO’s readiness and strength. Creative solutions are also quickly needed to undermine the Russian blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports, facilitating the export of grain. Defense experts told CNBC their baseline scenario for 2024 was a continuation of the current intensity of fighting but the same sense of stalemate with neither side able to progress much on the ground and take or reclaim territory. Another year of war in Europe has undoubtedly drained Western military resources and the political appetite to maintain massive amounts of military aid for Ukraine.
Now Russia have confirmed plans to invade Ukraine, although Vladimir Putin has said he has no plans to "occupy" the country, various states have confirmed that Russia will face harsh sanctions. The BBC reports that the UK government will utilise recent legislation to impose restrictions on the people and organisations linked to Russia - as well as measures to personally target Vladimir Putin. The UK will ban hi-tech exports to Russia and sanction people and companies in the defence and energy sectors. Fighting between Russian, pro-Russian and Ukrainian forces is still ongoing in the region. There have been an estimated 14,000 lives lost in the last eight years. While both Ukraine and western countries have accused Russia of sending weapons to assist, Moscow has denied intervention.
And nearly five months in, there’s no end in sight to the brutal conflict. Prior to the talks, Ukraine officials shared that Russia had dropped preconditions to any peace deal. However, Ukraine's foreign minister Dymtro Kuleba added that the Russian president's announcement that nuclear weapons were now on high alert was a move to put pressure on the country during negotiations.
Not the full-scale war that has bombed civilians across Ukraine and left more than 13 million either as refugees abroad or displaced inside their own country. Russian President Vladimir Putin also has called on the U.S. to remove its nuclear weapons from Europe and for Western allied countries to stop rotating their troops through several nations in Eastern Europe. About 10 civilians are believed to have been killed, including six in an air strike in Brovary near the capital Kyiv. A man was also killed in shelling outside the major eastern city of Kharkiv. There are reports of attacks on Ukrainian military infrastructure across the country, and Russian convoys entering from all directions.
Russia will be losing the same number of troops, if not more, Brookings’ Stent says. Despite such heavy losses, analysts predict that the war could go on for years. “Both sides are now gearing [up] for a long war—recruiting, training, finding replacements—and moving from what you might call the sprint phase to a marathon phase,” Cancian says.
The focus of increased assistance might be defensive weapons that can be rapidly absorbed by Ukraine's armed forces. They could help deny Moscow the capacity to conduct a large-scale heavy fire power campaign to rapidly occupy Ukraine east of the Dnieper River and seize key cities, such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odessa. Russia has gathered up to 190,000 troops along the Ukrainian border and is positioned to launch an attack that could threaten the capital, Kyiv, and sweep across much of the country. An offensive of that size has not been seen in Europe since the second world war.
- However, uncertainty seems to be prevailing in Ukraine as people are being urged to stay at home where possible.
- He has lobbied aggressively for NATO to expedite Ukraine's request for membership.
- If Russia were to invade Ukraine, it would likely employ massive cyber and electronic warfare tools and long-range PGMs.
Hundreds of thousands of people, including children, have been forcefully deported to Russia. Over six million (at the time of writing) have had to flee Ukraine; many more have been internally displaced. Hospitals, infrastructure, cultural treasures, private homes and industrial centres are either destroyed or pillaged, with stolen goods being sent to Russia in an organised manner.