Ukraine conflict: What we know about the invasion

· 6 min read
Ukraine conflict: What we know about the invasion

If you are a frontline Ukrainian soldier in eastern Ukraine then clearly the situation is extremely dangerous. And for millions of Ukrainian people the fears over how the crisis will impact their daily lives is ever present. Mr Zelenskyy has called for public officials to disclose their incomes to increase transparency and eliminate corruption as Ukraine tries to meet the stringent requirements for its bid to join the European Union. Unnamed Indian government sources have suggested India wants to distance itself from Russia, according to Reuters news agency. "A frank and constructive dialogue is expected to improve relations between states," the Ukrainian president's office said on its official channel on the Telegram messaging app alongside a photo of Mr Szijjarto, Mr Kuleba and Mr Yermak.

  • Russia did not want to occupy Ukraine, he said, but would demilitarise and "de-Nazify" the country.
  • If law and order really began to break down, security forces could be authorised to use lethal force against looters; neighbourhood vigilante groups might spring up.
  • But the Russian ministry of defence said Kyiv shot down the Il-76, and claimed that the plane was carrying 65 Ukrainian PoWs who were to be swapped, along with six crew and three Russian servicemen.
  • In Romania's Black Sea port of Constanta, the rumble of US heavy military matériel was breaking the dawn quiet, signs that reinforcements and 1,000 more troops were coming into an airbase there.

All three experts said Putin's desire to be revered in history books likely motivated him to attack. Putin also promotes this Nazi idea to win support in the West, where people have always been "susceptible" to the argument that Ukraine has a Nazi problem, Hall said. Taylor said there are some who identify with Nazi ideology in Ukraine, but "it's a small group. They've never been  politically powerful or important, but they are there." He also pointed out that NATO doesn't simply expand, but that countries apply to join, usually motivated by a perceived outside threat. At the start of the invasion, Putin blamed NATO's expansion into eastern Europe for forcing his hand, echoing a criticism he has made for years. Taylor said the invasion of Ukraine reflects Putin's "grievances that have been brewing for a long time."

What has been the impact of the Ukraine war on the rest of the world?

US officials have also pointed to an increase in Russia's social media "disinformation". Taylor said the arrest of Viktor Medvedchuk made Putin realize "his goal of bringing Ukraine under Russian control peacefully has failed. And so the only option left is the military one." Taylor said that during the 2019 election, Zelenskyy was also seen "as the one who was potentially more pro-Russian. He's from a Russian speaking region. His first language was Russian."

Ukraine's counteroffensive is likely to make some progress in the remainder of this year, Barrons said — but nowhere near enough to end the occupation. The war between Russia and Ukraine entered a new phase this summer when Kyiv launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive, and there were hopes Ukraine would regain  the upper hand. "We've made every possible effort to engage Russia, to look at the concerns that it's raised, to share concerns that we have, that European partners and allies have," he said. The only slightly positive news seemed to come out of Moscow, where British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said he had had a "constructive, frank" discussion with Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu. Despite the flurry of flights crisscrossing Europe to bring leaders together around the tables of diplomacy over the past weeks, the results have been far less spectacular as both sides continue to wait to see who will blink first over the issue.

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Support our mission and help keep Vox free for all by making a financial contribution to Vox today. “For many Ukrainians, we’re accustomed to war,” said Oleksiy Sorokin, the political editor and chief operating officer of the English-language Kyiv Independent publication.  https://euronewstop.co.uk/why-is-europe-not-helping-ukraine.html  is the corner Putin has put himself in, which makes a walk-back from Russia seem difficult to fathom. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, and it doesn’t eliminate the possibility of some sort of diplomatic solution that gives Putin enough cover to declare victory without the West meeting all of his demands.

  • The government says it wants to spend 2.5% of national income on defence - but has still not said when.
  • The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) is a military alliance of countries which includes the US and the UK.
  • They predict intense fighting is likely to continue into the next year but say Kyiv's forces are unlikely to launch any more counteroffensives.
  • In Sweden and Norway, conscription is partial - not everyone gets drafted.

Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says Nato will “continue to take all necessary measures to protect and defend all allies”. A number of civilian areas have been targeted, including one apartment complex outside of Kharkiv - a city of 1.4 million people in north-eastern Ukraine. Air strikes continued overnight and into the early hours of Friday, with attacks being reported across the country - including on the capital Kyiv. Further east in Kramatorsk, in the eastern Donetsk region, the BBC's Eastern European Correspondent Sarah Rainsford said people did not expect such a full-on assault. Ukraine has declared martial law - which means the military takes control temporarily. It has cut diplomatic ties with Russia, offered weapons to anyone who wants them and declared an overnight curfew for Kyiv.

Joe Pike, political correspondent

Given how the Ukraine conflict is going, such an eventuality cannot be ruled out. Last week, another senior Nato military chief said countries needed to be on alert "and expect the unexpected". Adm Rob Bauer, who heads the alliance's military committee, said the public needed to change their mindset for an era "when anything can happen at any time". The Western defence official said that if Russia chose to carry out an attack now it could do so. But he said Russian forces massed on the border were still missing some crucial elements - such as full logistical support, ammunition stocks, field hospitals and blood banks.

what happens if ukraine and russia go to war

But without political support, the mindset of a country that does not feel like it is about to go to war is unlikely to change. The overall effect means Finland can muster one of Europe's largest armies. The size of its active armed forces is only 19,000 personnel, but it can call on another 238,000 reserves. In Sweden and Norway, conscription is partial - not everyone gets drafted.

  • And even once Russian forces have achieved some presence in Ukraine's cities, perhaps they struggle to maintain control.
  • That scenario could embolden critics of the war; increase public discontent with continued funding for Ukraine; and pose a problem in terms of arms production and supplies for the West.
  • But the alliance has also made clear that it believes that Ukraine has a right to make its own decisions as a sovereign nation, and it is not willing to give Russia a veto on Ukraine's future.
  • North Korea has been accused of supplying ballistic missiles and hundreds of thousands of artillery shells to the Russian government for its war in Ukraine – dealings that are in violation of international law.
  • Putin believed that in Zelenskyy "he had someone he could manipulate in Ukraine," Hall said.

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko plays down their significance, saying they are “normal exercises”. Russians tanks were filmed on the outskirts of Kyiv on Friday morning. A second night of attacks followed with heavy gunfire and explosions in parts of the capital. If you are reading this page and can't see the form you will need to visit the mobile version of the BBC website to submit your question or comment or you can email us at US President Joe Biden said Mr Putin had "chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering". Meanwhile Russia's currency, the rouble, fell to an all-time low against the dollar and the euro.

Ukrainian military intelligence said it did not have “reliable and comprehensive” information about who or what was onboard the Ilyushin Il-76 aircraft, which was filmed crashing and exploding in a fireball on Wednesday afternoon. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive - some of each could combine to produce different outcomes. And the liberal, international rules-based order might just have rediscovered what it was for in the first place. Ukraine will do all it can to keep pressure on the Russians there to make it untenable for the Russian navy in Sevastopol, the handful of air force bases there and their logistics base at Dzankoy.

  • Russia, meanwhile, is likely to focus on consolidating the territory it has already seized, particularly in eastern Ukraine.
  • As bad as the situation on the Russia-Ukraine border is right now, it does not currently involve a direct military confrontation between Nato and Russia.
  • But he said even that is not enough - so the Army should be designed to expand rapidly "to enable the first echelon, resource the second echelon, and train and equip the citizen army that must follow".
  • Peter Szijjarto has arrived in Ukraine for talks with senior officials today.
  • But NATO’s open-door policy says sovereign countries can choose their own security alliances.