But far-fetched as they might sound, General Sir Patrick Sanders, the head of Britain’s army, believes it is time we dwelt on them more. One ex senior minister suggested to me that there was a generational divide between those who had lived with the threat of the Cold War era, and those who had not. The former minister, currently a serving Conservative MP, pointed out that the prime minister grew up without that existential threat.
Earlier this month, its civil defence minister told a defence conference "there could be a war in Sweden". On Tuesday, the chief of Norway’s armed forces said the country must increase defence spending in the face of a potential war with Russia within three years, following its neighbour Sweden in urging citizens to brace for conflict. Calls have recently come from senior figures on both sides of the Atlantic for the UK to be prepared in case of a potential war between Nato forces and Russia.
Ukraine repelling three-pronged attack on Avdiivka, says UK
There is a sense in the upper echelons of the British military that many politicians and most of the public have not grasped the threat they see. It is the duty of the military to analyse that threat, and they still might be proved wrong. But European nations closer to Russian borders appear to be taking it more seriously. Germany's Defence Minister, Boris Pistorius, recently told a German newspaper "we have to take into account that Vladimir Putin might even attack a Nato country one day". While he said such an attack is unlikely now, "our experts expect a period of five to eight years in which this could be possible". After the invasion international oil prices surged by nearly $6 per barrel to more than $100, levels not seen since 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea, and have since passed $120.
But Russia is a major producer in global energy markets, accounting for 17 per cent of gas and 12 per cent of oil production globally in 2019 (Chart B, bottom-right panel). And both the UK’s domestic and foreign supplies of oil and gas are purchased at market prices which, as described elsewhere in this chapter, have risen sharply following the Russian invasion and international response. The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on our forecast for the UK economy comes primarily via the impact of higher energy prices on inflation, real incomes, consumption and imports. Higher oil prices feed into the fuel component of CPI prices directly, while the household utility component is adjusted for expected changes in wholesale gas and electricity prices every six months via the Ofgem price gap.
What's on TV tonight: Putin vs the West
If Ukraine was part of Nato, the military alliance which is made up of 30 member states, including the US and UK, every Nato nation would have to launch an armed attack against Russia. Russia might use the crisis to launch cyber and other hybrid attacks on Nato countries. It could even send troops to the three Baltic countries - Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. After 2,000 anti-tank weapons were delivered last week and 30 British troops arrived to teach Ukrainian forces how to use them, the phrase "God Save the Queen" began trending on Twitter in Ukraine.
And in a globalised world, many industries that are key in wartime rely on imports. After an uneasy peace with Ukraine, Moscow has sent forces into the Baltics, clashing with British troops based there to protect Nato’s eastern flank. The government says it wants to spend 2.5% of national income on defence - but has still not said when. One Whitehall source told the Times that the training of Ukrainian civilians on UK soil could act as a rehearsal for rapid Army expansion. He was not making a case for conscription or for an imminent call up of volunteers. Instead, he was urging Britain to prepare for a mass mobilisation of tens of thousands of people, should war break out.
Oil price jumps
This was in return for Ukraine giving up its massive arsenal of nuclear weapons, a legacy of its membership of the Soviet Union. In 1994, the UK - along with the US - signed a memorandum at an international conference in Budapest promising "to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine". They also promised to provide assistance to Ukraine if it "should become a victim of an act of aggression". The former Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain has long been criticised for describing Germany's attempted annexation of Czechoslovakia in 1938 as "a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know nothing". We will continue to work with Ukraine and our international partners for a just and sustainable peace.
- But both of these demands would break key Nato principles, namely that the alliance should be open to any European country that wants to join and that all Nato members should be sovereign nations.
- The prospect of further UK sanctions against Russia comes a day after the prime minister announced that five Russian banks had had their assets frozen and three Russian billionaires would have travel bans imposed.
- The UK therefore faces price rises on three fronts as a result of the invasion – oil, gas and food – at a time when inflation is already high and many are facing a cost-of-living crisis.
- It said Nato allies were sending additional ships and fighter jets to eastern Europe to reinforce defences and increase deterrence, in response to the continuing build-up of Russian forces.
- He urged Ukrainian soldiers in the combat zone to lay down their weapons and go home, but said clashes were inevitable and "only a question of time".
The UK is not protected from rising prices purely because it relies less on Russian gas. These LNG supplies are very sensitive to global market prices and are sold to those offering the highest price. https://euronewstop.co.uk/how-many-tanks-did-russia-lose-in-ukraine.html caused international stock markets to drop dramatically, with the FTSE 100 in London falling by 3.2 per cent. Andrey Kelin told Times Radio on Friday that any measure the UK took against Moscow would be met with an equal response, but he refused to give further detail on how this could look. Moscow’s ambassador to London previously warned that the UK would be hit with “immediate retaliation” if it tried to sanction Russia. It is extremely unlikely that the UK will go to war with Russia any time soon.
- But be we warriors or wimps, now is the time to start facing up to the prospect, says Ed Arnold, a European Security Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.
- So, price increases and potential shortages in these non-energy commodities represent additional upside risks to our inflation forecast and downside risks to our real GDP forecast.
- Opposition leaders including Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer criticised the initial package of sanctions for being too soft.
- "We think, in orbit… they're using some of their things as ASATS (anti-satellite weapons). Actually, just colliding with them, we can't prove that. And they may be able to disable some of them electronically as well."
A source told BBC political correspondent Nick Eardley the meeting was "tempestuous" and ended early after Ms Truss said the ambassador should be "ashamed" of Russia's behaviour in Ukraine, adding that the Kremlin had lied repeatedly. Ukrainian protesters gathered outside Downing Street on Thursday afternoon to call for more action from the UK and the international community. "Because this act of wanton and reckless aggression is an attack not just on Ukraine, it's an attack on democracy and freedom in eastern Europe and around the world."
- The US did not green light the transaction until Turkey’s instruments of ratification of Sweden’s membership had arrived in Washington, a US official said, highlighting the highly sensitive nature of the negotiations, AFP reports.
- So far, that has yet to happen, with relatively few reported cyber attacks linked to Russia in the last few months.
- The Ukrainian armed forces said they had shot down five Russian planes and a helicopter - which Russia denies - and inflicted casualties on invading troops.
The Russian president has intensified a crackdown on opposition since the start of his invasion of Ukraine, and this has ramped up further as the elections have approached. "A frank and constructive dialogue is expected to improve relations between states," the Ukrainian president's office said on its official channel on the Telegram messaging app alongside a photo of Mr Szijjarto, Mr Kuleba and Mr Yermak. "The nightmare scenario would be that the states close to Russia double down on aid to Ukraine while those farther west decide to force a deal on Putin's terms. Then Europe itself could fracture," he says. But be we warriors or wimps, now is the time to start facing up to the prospect, says Ed Arnold, a European Security Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. If we took casualties at the rate the Ukrainians are taking them, the NHS would immediately be overwhelmed, and for years we’ve missed recruitment targets for the Armed Forces. Even during the London Blitz in 1941, nearly 5,000 looting cases came before the Old Bailey.
- Refusal can mean a jail sentence, though there is the option of civilian service out of uniform too.
- He said the UK was "leading on creating a package of economic sanctions" against Russia and was supplying defensive weaponry to Ukraine.
- Some bars and restaurants in Kyiv were offering free drinks to anyone who had a UK passport.
- The US, EU, UK and Japan have imposed financial penalties, called sanctions, against leading Russians and Russian banks.
- President Putin this month recognised the two regions held by the Russian-backed separatists as independent states and ordered Russian troops there, tearing up a peace deal.
- It is the duty of the military to analyse that threat, and they still might be proved wrong.
He said he was launching a “special military operation” in the east of the country. Russia has gradually built up a force of close to 190,000 troops around the Ukrainian border over the last few weeks but maintained that it had no intention to invade – until last night. Some migrants might stay in neighbouring Poland and eastern European countries, but some might head further west and eventually end up in the UK.