If the West became involved in a war with Russia, it is likely to be protracted, meaning supplies would have to be maintained for potentially months or even years. Prof Clarke says the 4,000 NLAW anti-tank weapons provided to Ukraine by the UK are a good example of what can happen. Earlier https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-does-china-think-of-russia-and-ukraine.html , its civil defence minister told a defence conference "there could be a war in Sweden". Talk of wider war in Europe and the potential need for mass mobilisation or a "citizen army" may sound alarming.
"What the conflict has done for Ukraine's international reputation is absolutely remarkable." Its forces are running dangerously low on the vital western-supplied anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles needed to fend off the advancing Russians. “Millions of companies across Britain” were warned “to prepare for a Russian cyber attack” after the government slapped sanctions on Moscow, the Daily Mail reported. Ukraine is known as the “breadbasket of Europe” and along with Russia makes up 29% of global wheat exports, 19% of corn and 80% of sunflower oil. That means “the price of items such as bread, baked goods and beer could rise”, The Times warned. The success of anti-tank systems the UK and the West has given Ukraine shows that planners' decisions to commission some weapons to counter a Soviet invasion of Europe was right.
Ukraine in maps: Tracking the war with Russia
Retired members of essential professions – doctors, nurses, morticians, police – would be urged back into service. As in Ukraine, office techies could be in demand to operate drones on the front lines and to fend off cyberattacks. Ukrainian banks and government websites were hit with a spate of cyber attacks last week prior to the deployment of Russian troops to Luhansk and Donetsk. Ukraine’s minister of digital transformation said the attacks have continued since the full invasion. Before the war, it was expected that one of the first lines of attack from Russia in any conflict would be a major cyber assault, both on Russia's opposing combatant, and potentially on its allies.
- The Russian civil aviation regulator today announced a ban on British airlines landing at Russian airports due to “the unfriendly decisions by the UK aviation authorities”, the BBC reported.
- While he said such an attack is unlikely now, "our experts expect a period of five to eight years in which this could be possible".
- Russian forces were bombarding Kharkiv, and they had taken territory in the east and south as far as Kherson, and surrounded the port city of Mariupol.
- Russia has also made advances north east of Kupiansk, north of Bakhmut, and south west of Avdiivka, according to the latest ISW assessment.
This was in return for Ukraine giving up its massive arsenal of nuclear weapons, a legacy of its membership of the Soviet Union. In 1994, the UK - along with the US - signed a memorandum at an international conference in Budapest promising "to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine". They also promised to provide assistance to Ukraine if it "should become a victim of an act of aggression". "Now we are starting the future war of drones, which maybe in two decades will turn the tide of any war." Ukraine's commander-in-chief Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyy told the Economist magazine in November that Russia and Ukraine had "reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate". Under constant drone surveillance and enemy bombardment, life has gradually drained from Kherson's streets.
How have these changes been reflected in our economy forecast?
It comes as the forces struggle to retain female personnel amid a sex harassment crisis engulfing the military. In 2022, Gen Sir Patrick used a speech to warn that the UK was facing its “1937 moment” over the war in Ukraine, and said Britain must be ready to “fight and win” to ward off the threat from Russia. Gen Sir Patrick, who will stand down as Chief of the General Staff in six months, will make his speech at the International Armoured Vehicles expo in Twickenham. The MP said that might be because the prime minister when growing up had not experienced the existential threat posed by the old Soviet Union during the Cold War era. He highlighted steps being taken in countries like Sweden and Finland - where the threat of Russia looms closer - to put their nations more on a war footing.
Meanwhile, the US is struggling to pass a $100 billion military aid package for Ukraine amid Republican opposition, with defence sources warning that if Donald Trump wins the presidential race, it will hand Russia victory. It comes after a senior Nato military official warned that private citizens should prepare for an all-out war with Russia in the next 20 years, which would require wholesale change in their lives. He has not been the only one to criticise cuts, with former CGS General Lord Dannatt saying the UK risked a repeat of the 1930s unless it invested more in its armed forces last week. Other senior Nato military commanders have also recently been calling on the alliance to ready itself for a potential conflict. "We will not be immune and as the pre-war generation we must similarly prepare - and that is a whole-of-nation undertaking," he said. "Ukraine brutally illustrates that regular armies start wars; citizen armies win them.
British nationals should leave Ukraine immediately if they judge it is safe to do so. The FCDO advises against travel to Russia, and British nationals should consider leaving if their presence is not essential. Russia has already put all ships on “stop” in the Azov Sea, where most grain is shipped from, a grain industry source told Sky News. Of course, for all the lessons that planners can learn from Ukraine, they will only be valuable if Russia continues to act in a similar way, should it ever become embroiled in a conflict with the West.
Recruitment remained a challenge, he said, although applications to join were “the highest in six years”. Sanders has previously complained publicly and privately about defence cuts. A year ago, in an attempt to ensure politicians plugged the gap with future spending, he warned that gifts of weapons to Ukraine would “leave us temporarily weaker”. During the speech in London, the army chief said the UK needed to broadly follow Stockholm’s example and take “preparatory steps to enable placing our societies on a war footing”.
